Belgium's defensive solidity—conceding just 0.67 goals per game—is the decisive edge here, neutralizing a Senegalese attack that scores freely but leaks 1.86 per match. While Senegal's firepower keeps BTTS a live possibility at 48%, their defensive fragility explains the model's lean toward a controlled 1-0 Belgian win. With market odds aligning closely to the prediction across 45 books, this is a confident read rather than a coin-flip knockout tie.