Senegal's superior attacking quality and the bookmakers' near-unanimous 78% backing make them clear favorites, with the model's 2.56 expected goals reflecting Iraq's brittle defensive record of 3.46 conceded per game. The decisive factor is the gulf in cutting edge: Iraq's anemic 0.46 goals scored per match offers little to threaten an opponent that should control proceedings. While Senegal's own defensive lapses keep BTTS at a live 48%, the 2-0 projection underscores expectations of a comfortable, if not pristine, victory.