Belgium's defensive solidity—a 0.46 goals-conceded average with clean sheets in half their recent outings—directly exploits New Zealand's most glaring weakness, having shipped 2.54 goals per game with zero clean sheets. While the Belgians' own attack has been muted (0.46 scored/g), the gulf in defensive discipline is the decisive factor, with the model and market converging tightly around a Belgium win (76% vs. 80%). The projected 0-2 scoreline reflects controlled superiority rather than an offensive avalanche, though New Zealand's leaky backline keeps BTTS a live possibility at 59%.