Colombia's miserly defense—conceding just 0.28 goals per game with clean sheets in two of their last three—is the decisive edge here, anchoring a projected 1.63–0.68 expected goals split. Ghana's anemic attacking output (0.66 scored per game) offers little to threaten that backline, and with BTTS hovering at just 42%, the model leans heavily toward a controlled, low-scoring Colombian victory. The 1-0 most likely scoreline reflects a match where Colombia's structural superiority, reinforced by their Elo advantage, should suffocate Ghana's limited creative threat.