Croatia's midfield control and superior attacking output (1.46 xG) make them deserved favorites, with the model and 48 bookmakers aligning tightly at 50%. However, Ghana's defensive resilience—two consecutive clean sheets—explains the modest expected goals and elevated 30% draw probability, signaling a tense, low-scoring contest. The decisive factor is whether Croatia can break down a compact Ghanaian block, with the 1-0 projection reflecting genuine chance-creation difficulty rather than dominance.