Argentina's defensive resilience—conceding just 0.39 goals per game with clean sheets in two of three matches—neutralizes a Cape Verde attack that has managed only 0.67 goals per game, making the 2.56–0.50 expected goals split entirely justified. The model's 81% confidence aligns tightly with the market's 84% consensus across 44 books, reflecting a rare convergence of form, finishing quality, and bookmaker sentiment. Cape Verde's path to an upset hinges almost entirely on defensive containment, but their lack of attacking output makes a clean sheet against Argentina a far more plausible scenario than a goalscoring breakthrough.