Argentina's pristine defensive record—two clean sheets and zero goals conceded in recent outings—is the decisive factor here, neatly aligning with the model's 0-2 projection and 80% win probability. Jordan's tendency to concede at 2.46 per game offers little resistance against a side scoring at an identical rate, leaving the underdogs reliant on a low-probability containment effort. The model sits marginally below the market's 83% confidence, but the directional consensus is unambiguous.