England's defensive solidity is the decisive edge here, having kept clean sheets in 67% of recent outings while conceding just 0.56 per game—a stark contrast to Congo DR's leaky backline, which has yet to register a shutout. Though the Elo gap favors England and underpins the 51% win probability, the elevated 54% BTTS figure reflects Congo DR's consistent attacking output, suggesting they'll trouble England's goal even in defeat. Expect the Three Lions to edge a competitive last-32 tie, with the 2-1 scoreline capturing both their superiority and the Congolese threat going forward.