Congo DR enter as moderate favorites, but the decisive factor here is defensive disparity: Uzbekistan's alarming 4.08 goals conceded per game points to a backline in disarray that the model expects DR Congo to exploit. With both attacks misfiring at under 0.5 goals per match, the 59% BTTS probability hinges more on shaky defending than clinical finishing, supporting the 2-1 projection. The low expected-goals totals suggest a tight, error-driven contest rather than an open one—making Congo DR's slight edge in defensive resilience the swing variable.