Uzbekistan's defensive collapse is the decisive factor here, having shipped over four goals per game in recent outings—a vulnerability that underpins Congo DR's 49% win probability despite both sides struggling to score. While neither attack inspires confidence, the model favors Congo DR's relative defensive solidity (1.00 conceded per game versus Uzbekistan's 4.08) to make the difference in a low-scoring contest. The 1-1 most likely scoreline and 59% BTTS probability reflect genuine uncertainty, however, as Congo DR's own toothless attack keeps this from being a comfortable favorite.