Norway's edge here is driven by firepower—averaging 2.52 goals per game—but their porous backline (2.48 conceded, zero clean sheets) is precisely why this projects as a tight, high-variance contest rather than a comfortable favorite's win. Ivory Coast's defensive discipline (0.67 conceded, 67% clean sheets) makes them dangerous on the counter, though their modest scoring output explains why the model still tilts Norwegian. With BTTS at 56% and a 1-2 most-likely scoreline, the prediction hinges on whether Norway's attack can overwhelm the Ivorian rearguard before their own defensive lapses level the tie.