France's defensive solidity is the decisive edge here, conceding just 0.45 goals per game with 50% clean sheets, which sharply contrasts with Norway's leaky backline that has yet to register a shutout. While Haaland-led Norway boast superior raw scoring output, the model anticipates France's structural discipline will neutralize that threat, hence the modest 1.90 xG projection against them. Expect a tighter contest than the 58% win probability suggests—the 59% BTTS figure and 1-1 most-likely scoreline signal Norway will find the net, but France's control should ultimately prove decisive.