Spain's defensive resilience is the decisive edge here—three consecutive clean sheets against Austria's leaky backline, which has conceded over two goals per game in recent outings. While Austria's attacking output (2.01 scored/g) suggests they can threaten, the 39% BTTS probability reflects how rarely Spain's organized press allows opponents clean looks. The model's 72% read aligns tightly with the market's 75%, reinforcing confidence in a controlled 2-0 Spanish victory.