Spain's defensive solidity is the decisive edge here—back-to-back clean sheets paired with 2.18 goals per game gives them control on both ends, a stark contrast to Uruguay's leaky backline that has yet to register a shutout. The model's 55% Spain win probability aligns tightly with the market's 57%, reinforcing confidence in a low-scoring outcome where Spain's attack should breach a Uruguayan defense conceding 1.54 per match. Expect a controlled 1-0 type result, with the sub-1.0 expected goals for Uruguay underscoring their struggle to generate clear chances against an organized Spanish press.