Portugal's defensive resilience is the decisive edge here, conceding just 0.28 goals per game with clean sheets in two of their last three—a stark contrast to Croatia's leaky 1.51 per match. The model's 1.52–0.89 expected goals split reflects this asymmetry, with Portugal's attacking threat amplified against a defense that's kept only one clean sheet recently. Expect a controlled, low-scoring affair, with the 1-0 scoreline and modest 48% BTTS probability pointing to Portugal managing the game rather than dominating it.