Mexico's defensive wall is the decisive edge here: five consecutive clean sheets paired with a 2.07 scoring average gives them control on both ends, which the model reflects in El Tri's projected 0.79 goals conceded. Ecuador's anemic 0.77 goals-per-game output offers little to threaten that record, and the low BTTS probability (41%) reinforces a tight, low-scoring affair. The projected 1-0 scoreline captures the most probable outcome—a disciplined Mexican performance grinding past a blunt Ecuadorian attack.