The Elo differential anchors this prediction, with the Netherlands' superior pedigree outweighing Morocco's tighter defensive numbers—the Dutch have failed to register a clean sheet in their last three, yet their 3.39 goals-per-game output should overwhelm a Moroccan side that creates sparingly. The model's tight 1.41–0.98 xG split and 1-0 most likely scoreline point to a low-event knockout tie decided by individual quality rather than volume. With BTTS at a near-coinflip 49%, Morocco's path lies in frustrating the Dutch into a single mistake, but the edge clearly favors the Oranje's finishing ceiling.