Canada's attacking output is the decisive edge here, averaging 2.65 goals per game against a South African side managing just 0.73—a gap that explains the 57% win probability and projected 0-1 scoreline. With both teams posting identical 33% clean sheet rates, the difference lies entirely in offensive firepower, where Canada's superior finishing should overcome a Bafana Bafana defense conceding nearly a goal per match. The tight expected goals total (0.85–1.63) and sub-50% BTTS probability point to a controlled, low-scoring Canadian victory rather than an open shootout.