The chasm in attacking output is decisive here: the United States is averaging nearly three goals per game while Turkey has failed to score in their recent outings, a contrast that underpins the model's 64% lean toward the Americans. With the US also conceding just 0.45 per match and keeping clean sheets in half their games, the projected 0-2 scoreline reflects both Turkey's blunt edge in front of goal and a defense that has shown no resistance. The only real path to value for Turkey lies in the 52% BTTS probability, suggesting the US backline may still concede even while controlling the result.